Here are my NFL Week 11 Picks
(9-4 last week, 96-50-1 for the season)
Bye teams: Bal, Dal, Jax, NYJ
Buf @ Mia – The stats point toward the Dolphins winning this TNF matchup. These teams have the same record and the same momentum. But Miami has been great against the AFC, has scored more points than Buffalo, and has allowed less. Oh yeah, and they get to play at home.
Atl @ Car – The NFL South is a mess. The Saints are winning the division with a 4-5 record, the Bucs are plain terrible, the Falcons are disappointing, and the Panthers just got destroyed by Mark Sanchez. Carolina is on a four-game losing streak, while Atlanta just got their first road win.
Min @ Chi – Oddly enough, the Bears are actually winless at home this year, going 0-3. They’re also coming off a complete embarrassment at the hands of the Packers and I don’t really see them rallying around that fact. Still, it’s not like the Vikings are great, and Cutler has to do OK some games.
Hou @ Cle – It seems odd to say, but Cleveland is clearly the better team in this game. They’re 4-1 in their last five games and are playing legitimately good football. They’re also 4-1 at home for the season and should be able to take care of Ryan Mallett and a mediocre Texans team.
Sea @ KC – The KC D is legit; only the Lions have allowed less points. Not a good sign for a Seattle team that can run the ball for TDs but is not elite in the PPG category. Also, the Chiefs are 3-1 at home and are riding a four-game winning streak. I’ll root for the Seahawks to win.
Cin @ NO – The Bungles are so streaky. First they look unbeatable (3-0), then terrible (0-2-1), then recovered (2-0), then they get creamed by the Browns. Now they go on a big road trip starting with a visit to New Orleans where the Saints are almost perfect. I wouldn’t want to be Marvin Lewis.
SF @ NYG – Talk about unpredictability. The Niners are a very frustrating team to pick, you just never can tell how they’re going to perform. I like them to have a solid final stretch this season and make the playoffs, and I guess it starts here in New York where the Giants are barely a home team.
Den @ STL – It’s unfortunate that the Broncos lost to both Seattle and New England on the road, and I wouldn’t call St. Louis a pushover team, but I think Denver will find a way to get the job done. The Rams are only 1-3 at home and Peyton is slinging the ball pretty well right now.
TB @ Was – It’s a good thing that the Bucs are so incredibly terrible, because I don’t see the ‘Skins beating too many teams right now. Although, after a bye week RG3 should be in good shape, ready to put up some points vs the team that has the worst point differential in the NFC.
Oak @ SD – I imagine there aren’t many who would pick the Raiders here. After all, they’re 0-9, can’t score, can’t defend, and can barely play football. I’ll be rooting for them because I hate the Chargers, but SD is coming off a bye where they should have fixed some problems and should win.
Det @ Ari – This is gonna be a good one. The big story is Carson Palmer going down, Drew Stanton (ex-Lion) stepping up to replace him. Both of these teams play tremendous defense, so look for a low-scoring affair where Stanton plays just well enough to not lose.
Phi @ GB – Ok, maybe I was wrong to predict that Sanchez would tank. Maybe. He played well last week, but there’s still time. I would lay big money on Green Bay winning this game, especially at home, and I’m gonna stick to my guns in predicting Sanchez’ imminent demise.
NE @ Ind – This is, by far, the best matchup of the week, and it’s on SNF. I’m naturally inclined to lean home team in a game between two great teams. But the Pats are coming off a bye, Gronk & Brady are in sync, and I think New England is simply the better team. Should be close though.
Pit @ Ten – With so many horrible teams in the league right now (Oak, TB, Jax, NYJ), people forget about Tennessee. They’re just plain awful, scoring the least amount in the NFL this season. I know Pitt just lost on the road to the Jets, but I doubt they make it two in a row.