Here are my NFL Week 12 Picks
(10-4 last week, 106-54-1 for the season)
Bye teams: Car, Pit
KC @ Oak – I would love to pick the Raiders here, as I’ll be rooting for them to knock of a Chiefs team that is tied with my Broncos for first place in the AFC West. But I just can’t. Oakland is terrible, winless, can’t score, and can’t defend. KC might be on the road, but they are on a hot streak and have allowed the least points in the AFC. I wouldn’t put money on it, because the Raiders have proven an unpredictable team over the years, but the Chiefs should be able to do enough to earn the win.
Cle @ Atl – Somehow the Falcons are winning the NFC South. I’m not sure how, since they’re 4-6 and don’t play defense, but it’s true. Maybe it has something to do with the NFC South being inexplicably terrible or that ATL has a 4-0 record against their division. Anyway, they’ve got it rolling right now, and that’s bad news for the Brownies. Cleveland has been everyone’s Cinderella, but they got clobbered last week at home vs Houston and will probably lose on the road against a tough opponent.
NYJ @ Buf – If the Bills are going to have a chance to be the surprise playoff team I predicted, they had better win this week. At home vs a bad team and getting Fred Jackson fully back from injury, Buffalo needs to win and take some momentum into the latter part of the season. The Jets are coming off a win & a bye, could pose a threat, but still aren’t a great team. I can’t imagine Vick has another great game, not against a tough Bills defense in the cold weather.
TB @ Chi – The Bears finally got a win in Chicago last week, and it was a big one, giving them a shot at a Wild Card spot. Cutler had a pretty good game, actually found his excellent receivers, and looked pretty capable. Speaking of, everyone looks capable against the Bucs defense, which gives up 28 points per game, though not against RG3, that guy sucks. But Cutler doesn’t, he’s just odd, and I can see Chicago putting up exactly that number, winning this game 28-24.
Cin @ Hou – I said last week that the Bengals are beyond streaky & unpredictable, and they proved that by beating the Saints in New Orleans. I still don’t trust Cinci very far, but that’s a pretty huge win. The Texans won too, beating the Browns in Cleveland. So who takes this game? I can’t imagine Dalton holding up very well against J.J. Watt, and the Bungles like to lay eggs away from home, so I’ll go with Houston in a close one. Who knows, maybe we’ll have another tie.
Jax @ Ind – This should be the blowout of the weekend. Indy puts up 31 points per game; Jax scores 16. Again, that might just be the score in this one. In fairness, the Colts D isn’t all that good, the team isn’t on fire right now, and they could be beaten. But I just doubt the Jaguars are the team to do it. They have yet to win on the road, have the worst point differential in the league (-124), and I’m sorry, their helmets suck. Not good to be you, Jags, not good to be you.
GB @ Min – Could this be an upset in the making? Look at the stats: the Packers are 2-3 on the road and their worst loss came away vs a division opponent who plays strong D. The Vikings aren’t a pushover team and could make some noise. But would I bet on it? I guess not. The Packers have scored the most points in the league (330) and are coming off back-to-back 50+ point offensive performances. So, I’d be a little worried if I were a Green Bay fan, but not too worried.
Det @ NE – Here’s the 1pm game to watch, and I’m stuck with the Browns and that’s it. Bummer. This should be a strength vs strength matchup, with the Patriots scoring the most points in the AFC and the Lions allowing the fewest points in the whole league. Who’s gonna break? I’d guess it’ll be Detroit. Or more specifically, I think Stafford will need to put up some points to match Brady and won’t quite be able to do it. This just isn’t his year and it is Tom’s.
Ten @ Phi – I predicted Mark Sanchez to fail in his start vs Carolina; he didn’t, he played pretty well, and he silenced some critics. But not me, dammit! I was back on him again last week, thought he’d tank sooner rather than later. Well, this time was a little more cloudy, as he played OK but got most of his stats in garbage time. I still don’t think the guy will succeed, but I like his matchup against the Titans. They’re an awful team and won’t win this game.
STL @ SD – What’s up with the Chargers? They lose three in a row, have a bye, and then barely beat the Raiders. Phillip Rivers isn’t playing his best football right now, and yet San Diego remains in the division hunt, only a game out of first place. The Rams are coming off a win vs the Broncos, oddly enough, but that was at home. This game is in California and I expect the home team to get it together, score some points, and get back on track.
Ari @ Sea – As of right now, heading into this week, there’s no doubt that the Cardinals are the better of these two teams. But that doesn’t mean a whole lot, not when your starting quarterback is out for the season and you have to travel to Seattle. That stadium, that cold, that noise; I don’t think Drew Stanton has what it takes to win in that environment. Arizona has a solid defense, but their offense isn’t quite good enough to win this tough road game.
Mia @ Den – The Broncos are not playing great football right now. They lose to the Pats, start rough against the Raiders, and then get clobbered by the Rams. Granted, that was a 3-game road stretch and Denver much prefers to play at home, so perhaps it’s good timing that they return to Mile High this week. The Dolphins are a solid team, but the Broncos can handle them in Denver, after a loss, and with Kansas City tied for the division lead.
Was @ SF – Can we officially call RG3 a bust now? Has he proven that he’s not improving? Although, it seems like every time I belittle him he rises to the occasion and wins when he shouldn’t. I gotta stick to my guns though; he’s not a very good player. I’m not a huge fan of Colin Kaepernick either really, but that’s more personality than anything else. The Niners are the better team here, have more momentum, and are at home. Should be another Redskins loss.
Dal @ NYG – I know there’s that saying “Any Given Sunday”, but this game seems like a foregone conclusion. The Cowboys should kill the Giants; they score more, allow less, have a much better record, and have all the momentum in their favor. Also, the whole home/away thing doesn’t apply here, as the Boys are 4-0 on the road & the Giants can barely call their stadium ‘home’. Poor little Eli; I think he gets creamed this week and for the rest of the season.
Bal @ NO – This isn’t your typical Ravens team, or Saints team for that matter. They’ve scored about the same amount of points this season, which is odd for both teams, and neither are having stellar years. The Saints have been having trouble at home lately, which is out of character, and so I’d pick the Ravens here under most circumstances. But I just have a gut feeling that Drew Brees is gonna put on a show this Monday Night in New Orleans, just like old times.